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Tsz Kwan Lau v Mohammad Syafiq Kamal (Tue 10 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tsz Kwan Lau. Result: 6-11,12-10,11-9,13-11.

Starting level for Tsz Kwan Lau: 25,409, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 19,514, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Tsz Kwan Lau to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal.

Tsz Kwan Lau won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Kwan Lau played 18% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal in this match.

As Tsz Kwan Lau has played below his allowed range at 23,597, his level reduction is 2.9% before damping. On the assumption that Tsz Kwan Lau would normally have been playing at level 24,834 (based on typical behaviour), Mohammad Syafiq Kamal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Kwan Lau changes to -2.5% and Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to +2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Kwan Lau becomes -1% and for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Kwan Lau: 75%, Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Kwan Lau: 71%, Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 81%.

Final level for Tsz Kwan Lau: 25,149, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 19,746, level confidence: 81%.