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Chris Simpson v Ben Coleman (Tue 10 Sep 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 36,995, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 30,654, level confidence: 60%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Ben Coleman.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 69% better than Ben Coleman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of 43,808 and Ben Coleman at a level of 25,887. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +10.3% and Ben Coleman changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +2.5% and for Ben Coleman becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 84%, Ben Coleman: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 71%, Ben Coleman: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,752, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 29,889, level confidence: 65%.