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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Tayyab Aslam (Wed 11 Sep 2019)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 13-11,7-11,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 30,181, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Tayyab Aslam: 29,167, level confidence: 69%.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Tayyab Aslam.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 32% better than Tayyab Aslam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of 34,029 and Tayyab Aslam at a level of 25,869. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +13% and Tayyab Aslam changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +3% and for Tayyab Aslam becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 79%, Tayyab Aslam: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 70%, Tayyab Aslam: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 30,966, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam: 28,440, level confidence: 74%.