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Vikram Malhotra v Edgar Ramirez (Thu 12 Sep 2019)

Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 28,263, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Edgar Ramirez: 13,597, level confidence: 47%.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing 108% better than Edgar Ramirez.

Vikram Malhotra won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played 65% better than Edgar Ramirez in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Vikram Malhotra was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 21,190 and 28,263 without affecting his level.

In this case, Vikram Malhotra played at level 23,431 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Vikram Malhotra would normally have been playing at level 24,472 (based on typical behaviour), Edgar Ramirez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to 0% and Edgar Ramirez changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes 0% and for Edgar Ramirez becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Marietta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 87%, Edgar Ramirez: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 78%, Edgar Ramirez: 61%.

Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 28,263, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Edgar Ramirez: 13,789, level confidence: 61%.