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Zahed Mohamed v James Willstrop (Thu 12 Sep 2019)

Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 45,953, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 45,207, level confidence: 67%.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing 2% better than James Willstrop.

Zahed Mohamed won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 47% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played 49% better than James Willstrop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zahed Mohamed actually played at a level of 55,713 and James Willstrop at a level of 37,287. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to +14% and James Willstrop changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes +3% and for James Willstrop becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 87%, James Willstrop: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 72%, James Willstrop: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 47,146, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 43,884, level confidence: 68%.