Jesus Camacho v Vikram Malhotra (Fri 13 Sep 2019)
Match won by Jesus Camacho. Result: 11-6,11-3,5-11,8-11,11-3.
Starting level for
Jesus Camacho:
26,477, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
28,369, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Jesus Camacho.
Jesus Camacho won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jesus Camacho played
16% better than Vikram Malhotra in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jesus Camacho actually played at a level of
29,559 and Vikram Malhotra at a level of
25,411. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jesus Camacho changes to +11% and Vikram Malhotra changes to -9.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jesus Camacho becomes +2.8% and for Vikram Malhotra becomes -2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Marietta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jesus Camacho: 81%, Vikram Malhotra: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jesus Camacho: 73%, Vikram Malhotra: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jesus Camacho:
27,162, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
27,711, level confidence: 79%.