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Mark Rodger v Perry Malik (Tue 17 Sep 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 3-11,1-11,3-11.

Starting level for Mark Rodger: 6,176, level confidence: 29%.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 15,696, level confidence: 67%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 154% better than Mark Rodger.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 371% better than Mark Rodger in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Perry Malik actually played at a level of 21,377 and Mark Rodger at a level of 4,535. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to +9.2% and Mark Rodger changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes +2.7% and for Mark Rodger becomes -6.5%.

Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Given Mark Rodger's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is +1.6% and for Mark Rodger is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 82%, Mark Rodger: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 60%, Mark Rodger: 40%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Rodger: 5,923, level confidence: 40%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 15,980, level confidence: 60%.