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Joseph Green v Scott Handley (Mon 16 Sep 2019)

Match won by Joseph Green. Result: 11-8,10-12,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Joseph Green: 19,452, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 13,094, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Joseph Green to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Scott Handley.

Joseph Green won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joseph Green played 28% better than Scott Handley in this match.

As Joseph Green has played below his allowed range at 17,125, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Joseph Green would normally have been playing at level 18,551 (based on typical behaviour), Scott Handley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joseph Green changes to -1.7% and Scott Handley changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joseph Green becomes -0.7% and for Scott Handley becomes +1.5%.

Given Joseph Green's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Joseph Green is -0.4% and for Scott Handley is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joseph Green: 80%, Scott Handley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joseph Green: 74%, Scott Handley: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joseph Green: 19,345, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 13,195, level confidence: 81%.