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Scott Handley v Joe Brooke (Tue 17 Sep 2019)

Match won by Joe Brooke. Result: 10-12,11-7,4-11,5-11.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 13,317, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joe Brooke: 16,150, level confidence: 37%.
Joe Brooke to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Scott Handley.

Joe Brooke won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Brooke played 29% better than Scott Handley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Brooke actually played at a level of 16,647 and Scott Handley at a level of 12,920. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Brooke changes to +2.8% and Scott Handley changes to -1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Brooke becomes +1.3% and for Scott Handley becomes -0.6%.

Given Joe Brooke's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Joe Brooke is +0.7% and for Scott Handley is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Brooke: 61%, Scott Handley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Brooke: 59%, Scott Handley: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 13,250, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Joe Brooke: 16,241, level confidence: 59%.