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Richie Fallows v Mike Harris (Wed 18 Sep 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 9-11,11-8,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 30,973, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Harris: 7,095, level confidence: 14%.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 337% better than Mike Harris.

Richie Fallows won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 27% better than Mike Harris in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richie Fallows was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,102 and 30,973 without affecting his level.

As Richie Fallows has played below his allowed range at 10,445, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 19,361 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Harris played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 47%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to -1.2% and Mike Harris changes to +20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes -0.5% and for Mike Harris becomes +5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 92%, Mike Harris: 38%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 49%, Mike Harris: 20%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,782, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Mike Harris: 7,503, level confidence: 20%.