Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Rory Stewart (Wed 18 Sep 2019)
Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 10-12,11-9,11-3,11-9.
Starting level for
Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
30,498, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for
Rory Stewart:
27,119, level confidence: 59%.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Rory Stewart.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played
27% better than Rory Stewart in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Van Den Herrewegen actually played at a level of
32,378 and Rory Stewart at a level of
25,545. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to +5.8% and Rory Stewart changes to -4.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes +1.7% and for Rory Stewart becomes -1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 66%, Rory Stewart: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 62%, Rory Stewart: 72%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
30,964, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Rory Stewart:
26,801, level confidence: 72%.