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Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Paul Coll (Fri 20 Sep 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 6-11,6-11,6-11.

Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,662, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Paul Coll: 65,128, level confidence: 48%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 99% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen.

Paul Coll won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 83% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Coll was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 50,162 and 65,128 without affecting his level.

In this case, Paul Coll played at level 59,880 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Jan Van Den Herrewegen is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 69%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 66%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,845, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Paul Coll: 65,197, level confidence: 66%.