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Lewis Anderson v Tim Weber (Fri 20 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tim Weber. Result: 9-11.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 15,718, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Weber: 18,540, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Tim Weber to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Lewis Anderson.

Tim Weber won 55% of the points.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Weber actually played at a level of 18,872 and Lewis Anderson at a level of 15,441. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result.
As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Weber changes to +0.9% and Lewis Anderson changes to -0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Weber becomes +0.4% and for Lewis Anderson becomes -0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Weber: 84%, Lewis Anderson: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Weber: 82%, Lewis Anderson: 90%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 15,640, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Tim Weber: 18,588, level confidence: 82%.