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Rory Stewart v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Sat 21 Sep 2019)

Match won by Rory Stewart. Result: 11-7,12-10,12-10.

Starting level for Rory Stewart: 27,342, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,927, level confidence: 63%.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Rory Stewart.

Rory Stewart won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rory Stewart played 38% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rory Stewart actually played at a level of 35,248 and Jan Van Den Herrewegen at a level of 25,542. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rory Stewart changes to +26% and Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rory Stewart becomes +5.5% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rory Stewart: 79%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rory Stewart: 61%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 61%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rory Stewart: 28,755, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,173, level confidence: 61%.