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Chris Leiper v Lewis Anderson (Sat 21 Sep 2019)

Match won by Chris Leiper. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-9.

Starting level for Chris Leiper: 18,465, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 15,637, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Chris Leiper to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Lewis Anderson.

Chris Leiper won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Leiper played 106% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Leiper actually played at a level of 24,403 and Lewis Anderson at a level of 11,832. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Leiper changes to +29% and Lewis Anderson changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Leiper becomes +6.5% and for Lewis Anderson becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Leiper: 74%, Lewis Anderson: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Leiper: 56%, Lewis Anderson: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Leiper: 19,639, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 15,298, level confidence: 72%.