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Lyell Fuller v Ben Coates (Wed 18 Sep 2019)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 24,086, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Ben Coates: 10,952, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 120% better than Ben Coates.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 65% better than Ben Coates in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyell Fuller was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,425 and 24,086 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lyell Fuller played at level 19,241 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lyell Fuller would normally have been playing at level 20,487 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Coates played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to 0% and Ben Coates changes to +2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes 0% and for Ben Coates becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 69%, Ben Coates: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 60%, Ben Coates: 73%.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 24,086, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Ben Coates: 11,108, level confidence: 73%.