Vikram Malhotra v Reiko Peter (Thu 19 Sep 2019)
Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-6,6-11,11-8,9-11,11-3.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
27,508, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Reiko Peter:
24,088, level confidence: 54%.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Reiko Peter.
Vikram Malhotra won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played
13% better than Reiko Peter in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vikram Malhotra actually played at a level of
27,396 and Reiko Peter at a level of
24,187. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to 0% and Reiko Peter changes to +0.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes -0.1% and for Reiko Peter becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 93%, Reiko Peter: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 93%, Reiko Peter: 73%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
27,459, level confidence: 93%.
Final level for Reiko Peter:
24,231, level confidence: 73%.