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Vikram Malhotra v Leonel Cardenas (Fri 20 Sep 2019)

Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 7-11,11-7,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 27,653, level confidence: 93%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 28,852, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Vikram Malhotra.

Vikram Malhotra won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played 31% better than Leonel Cardenas in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vikram Malhotra actually played at a level of 32,316 and Leonel Cardenas at a level of 24,689. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to +15% and Leonel Cardenas changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes +3.5% and for Leonel Cardenas becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 96%, Leonel Cardenas: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 82%, Leonel Cardenas: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 28,529, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 27,905, level confidence: 78%.