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Scott Handley v Joe Blackmur (Sun 22 Sep 2019)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 11-8,7-11,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 13,131, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joe Blackmur: 9,415, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Joe Blackmur.

Scott Handley won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 26% better than Joe Blackmur in this match.

As Scott Handley has played below his allowed range at 12,016, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Scott Handley would normally have been playing at level 12,680 (based on typical behaviour), Joe Blackmur played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to -0.9% and Joe Blackmur changes to +2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes -0.4% and for Joe Blackmur becomes +1.4%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Given Joe Blackmur's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is 0% and for Joe Blackmur is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 92%, Joe Blackmur: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 88%, Joe Blackmur: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 13,079, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Joe Blackmur: 9,485, level confidence: 88%.