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Aaron Allpress v Anthony Rogal (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 11-9,7-11,7-11,2-11.

Starting level for Aaron Allpress: 11,648, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 16,348, level confidence: 58%.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Aaron Allpress.

Anthony Rogal won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 35% better than Aaron Allpress in this match.

In this case, Anthony Rogal played at level 15,751 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Aaron Allpress is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to 0% and Aaron Allpress changes to 0%.

Given Aaron Allpress's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 76%, Aaron Allpress: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 75%, Aaron Allpress: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Aaron Allpress: 11,680, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal: 16,389, level confidence: 75%.