SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Alex Phillips v Tim Vail (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tim Vail. Result: 8-11,2-11,6-11.

Starting level for Alex Phillips: 13,828, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 21,438, level confidence: 48%.
Tim Vail to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Alex Phillips.

Tim Vail won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Vail played 106% better than Alex Phillips in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Vail actually played at a level of 24,727 and Alex Phillips at a level of 11,989. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Vail changes to +12% and Alex Phillips changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Vail becomes +3.1% and for Alex Phillips becomes -3.4%.

Given Tim Vail's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Given Alex Phillips's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Tim Vail is +1.7% and for Alex Phillips is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Vail: 69%, Alex Phillips: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Vail: 60%, Alex Phillips: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Phillips: 13,540, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 21,762, level confidence: 60%.