Carlos Cornes v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Wed 25 Sep 2019)
Match won by Carlos Cornes. Result: 11-7,6-11,11-6,11-5.
Starting level for
Carlos Cornes:
27,035, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
32,475, level confidence: 60%.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Carlos Cornes.
Carlos Cornes won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carlos Cornes played
28% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Carlos Cornes actually played at a level of
33,540 and Jan Van Den Herrewegen at a level of
26,177. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carlos Cornes changes to +17% and Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to -22%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carlos Cornes becomes +3.9% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes -4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carlos Cornes: 88%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carlos Cornes: 71%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 63%.
A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Carlos Cornes:
28,036, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
31,805, level confidence: 63%.