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Mohammad Syafiq Kamal v Dimitri Steinmann (Wed 25 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mohammad Syafiq Kamal. Result: 12-10,3-11,7-11,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 19,757, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dimitri Steinmann: 27,842, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Dimitri Steinmann to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal.

Mohammad Syafiq Kamal won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohammad Syafiq Kamal played 8% better than Dimitri Steinmann in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohammad Syafiq Kamal actually played at a level of 24,317 and Dimitri Steinmann at a level of 22,621. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to +18% and Dimitri Steinmann changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes +4.4% and for Dimitri Steinmann becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 87%, Dimitri Steinmann: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 71%, Dimitri Steinmann: 69%.

Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 20,632, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Dimitri Steinmann: 26,697, level confidence: 69%.