Mohammad Syafiq Kamal v Dimitri Steinmann (Wed 25 Sep 2019)
Match won by Mohammad Syafiq Kamal. Result: 12-10,3-11,7-11,11-4,11-8.
Starting level for
Mohammad Syafiq Kamal:
19,757, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Dimitri Steinmann:
27,842, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Dimitri Steinmann to win as he is currently playing
41% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal.
Mohammad Syafiq Kamal won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohammad Syafiq Kamal played
8% better than Dimitri Steinmann in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohammad Syafiq Kamal actually played at a level of
24,317 and Dimitri Steinmann at a level of
22,621. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to +18% and Dimitri Steinmann changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes +4.4% and for Dimitri Steinmann becomes -4.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 87%, Dimitri Steinmann: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 71%, Dimitri Steinmann: 69%.
Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal:
20,632, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Dimitri Steinmann:
26,697, level confidence: 69%.