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Edmon Lopez Moller v Darren Pragasam (Wed 25 Sep 2019)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-5,14-12,4-11,11-4.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 33,776, level confidence: 34%.
Starting level for Darren Pragasam: 18,142, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Darren Pragasam.

Edmon Lopez Moller won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 25% better than Darren Pragasam in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Edmon Lopez Moller was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,291 and 33,776 without affecting his level.

As Edmon Lopez Moller has played below his allowed range at 24,877, his level reduction is 9.7% before damping. On the assumption that Edmon Lopez Moller would normally have been playing at level 30,361 (based on typical behaviour), Darren Pragasam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -7% and Darren Pragasam changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -2% and for Darren Pragasam becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 58%, Darren Pragasam: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 48%, Darren Pragasam: 74%.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 33,126, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Darren Pragasam: 18,445, level confidence: 74%.