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Jaymie Haycocks v Liam Jinks (Wed 25 Sep 2019)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 27,022, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Liam Jinks: 1,552, level confidence: 10%.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 1641% better than Liam Jinks.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 56% better than Liam Jinks in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jaymie Haycocks was taking it easy by anything up to 69%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,587 and 27,022 without affecting his level.

As Jaymie Haycocks has played below his allowed range at 2,506, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Jaymie Haycocks would normally have been playing at level 8,361 (based on typical behaviour), Liam Jinks played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 86%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to 0% and Liam Jinks changes to +16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -0.1% and for Liam Jinks becomes +7.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Aspin Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 63%, Liam Jinks: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 19%, Liam Jinks: 10%.

Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 27,001, level confidence: 19%.
Final level for Liam Jinks: 1,672, level confidence: 10%.