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Karim Ali Fathi v Tom Richards (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Karim Ali Fathi. Result: 8-11,12-10,11-8.

Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 35,730, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Tom Richards: 41,987, level confidence: 56%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Karim Ali Fathi.

Karim Ali Fathi won 67% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Ali Fathi played 13% better than Tom Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Ali Fathi actually played at a level of 41,255 and Tom Richards at a level of 36,364. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 10.5% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Ali Fathi changes to +9.8% and Tom Richards changes to -10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Ali Fathi becomes +2.4% and for Tom Richards becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Ali Fathi: 77%, Tom Richards: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Ali Fathi: 67%, Tom Richards: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 36,605, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Tom Richards: 41,054, level confidence: 65%.