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Tayyab Aslam v Mohammad Syafiq Kamal (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 11-4,20-18,7-11,11-8.

Starting level for Tayyab Aslam: 28,454, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 20,675, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal.

Tayyab Aslam won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played 23% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal in this match.

As Tayyab Aslam has played below his allowed range at 26,060, his level reduction is 2.3% before damping. On the assumption that Tayyab Aslam would normally have been playing at level 27,545 (based on typical behaviour), Mohammad Syafiq Kamal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 3.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to -2% and Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes -0.8% and for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 83%, Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 79%, Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tayyab Aslam: 28,138, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 21,035, level confidence: 79%.