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Marwan Elshorbagy v Karim Ali Fathi (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Marwan Elshorbagy. Result: 11-4,11-9.

Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 51,294, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 36,605, level confidence: 67%.
Marwan Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Karim Ali Fathi.

Marwan Elshorbagy won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marwan Elshorbagy played 69% better than Karim Ali Fathi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marwan Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 56,369 and Karim Ali Fathi at a level of 33,309. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.3% and 8.3% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy changes to +5.5% and Karim Ali Fathi changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes +1.5% and for Karim Ali Fathi becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marwan Elshorbagy: 87%, Karim Ali Fathi: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marwan Elshorbagy: 79%, Karim Ali Fathi: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 51,942, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 36,149, level confidence: 74%.