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Alan Clyne v Declan James (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 13-11,3-11,11-5.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 45,263, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Declan James: 41,897, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Declan James.

Alan Clyne won 67% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 10% better than Declan James in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 45,673 and Declan James at a level of 41,521. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.9% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +0.6% and Declan James changes to -0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +0.2% and for Declan James becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 87%, Declan James: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 86%, Declan James: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 45,345, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Declan James: 41,910, level confidence: 84%.