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Tarek Momen v Cesar Salazar (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 65,268, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 41,153, level confidence: 62%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Cesar Salazar.

Tarek Momen won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 100% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of 73,294 and Cesar Salazar at a level of 36,647. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.6% and 9.6% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 7.2% and 7.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +7.2% and Cesar Salazar changes to -7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +1.8% and for Cesar Salazar becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 79%, Cesar Salazar: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 70%, Cesar Salazar: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 66,168, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar: 40,627, level confidence: 70%.