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Nicolas Mueller v Ivan Yuen (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 12-10,11-6,8-11,6-11,11-8.

Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 37,670, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ivan Yuen: 32,314, level confidence: 67%.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Ivan Yuen.

Nicolas Mueller won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played 9% better than Ivan Yuen in this match.

As Nicolas Mueller has played below his allowed range at 36,127, his level reduction is 3% before damping. On the assumption that Nicolas Mueller would normally have been playing at level 37,432 (based on typical behaviour), Ivan Yuen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.3%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to -2.4% and Ivan Yuen changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes -0.9% and for Ivan Yuen becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 87%, Ivan Yuen: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 84%, Ivan Yuen: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 37,306, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Ivan Yuen: 32,772, level confidence: 79%.