Shawn Delierre v Jaymie Haycocks (Fri 27 Sep 2019)
Match won by Shawn Delierre. Result: 11-5,12-10,13-11.
Starting level for
Shawn Delierre:
25,497, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for
Jaymie Haycocks:
28,156, level confidence: 33%.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Shawn Delierre.
Shawn Delierre won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shawn Delierre played
44% better than Jaymie Haycocks in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shawn Delierre actually played at a level of
32,143 and Jaymie Haycocks at a level of
22,334. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shawn Delierre changes to +18% and Jaymie Haycocks changes to -25%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shawn Delierre becomes +4.2% and for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -5.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Aspin Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shawn Delierre: 67%, Jaymie Haycocks: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shawn Delierre: 53%, Jaymie Haycocks: 46%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Shawn Delierre:
26,509, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks:
26,909, level confidence: 46%.