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Simon White v Tim Vail (Sun 29 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tim Vail. Result: 7-11,6-11,9-11.

Starting level for Simon White: 10,515, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 21,786, level confidence: 59%.
Tim Vail to win as he is currently playing 107% better than Simon White.

Tim Vail won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Vail played 52% better than Simon White in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tim Vail was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,791 and 21,786 without affecting his level.

In this case, Tim Vail played at level 17,352 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tim Vail would normally have been playing at level 18,883 (based on typical behaviour), Simon White played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Vail changes to 0% and Simon White changes to +5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Vail becomes 0% and for Simon White becomes +2%.

Given Simon White's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Tim Vail is 0% and for Simon White is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Vail: 77%, Simon White: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Vail: 66%, Simon White: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon White: 10,630, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 21,753, level confidence: 66%.