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Matt Lowery v Andy Whipp (Tue 01 Oct 2019)

Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 6-11,1-11,3-11.

Starting level for Matt Lowery: 7,374, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for Andy Whipp: 18,352, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing 149% better than Matt Lowery.

Andy Whipp won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played 230% better than Matt Lowery in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Whipp actually played at a level of 21,132 and Matt Lowery at a level of 6,404. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.4% and 9.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to +4.7% and Matt Lowery changes to -9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes +1.7% and for Matt Lowery becomes -3.3%.

Given Andy Whipp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matt Lowery's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Andy Whipp is +0.9% and for Matt Lowery is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 86%, Matt Lowery: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 74%, Matt Lowery: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Lowery: 7,232, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Andy Whipp: 18,568, level confidence: 74%.