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Adam Dominey v Tim Vail (Wed 02 Oct 2019)

Match won by Tim Vail. Result: 4-11,7-11,4-11.

Starting level for Adam Dominey: 6,028, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 21,729, level confidence: 65%.
Tim Vail to win as he is currently playing 260% better than Adam Dominey.

Tim Vail won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Vail played 120% better than Adam Dominey in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tim Vail was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,525 and 21,729 without affecting his level.

In this case, Tim Vail played at level 14,133 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tim Vail would normally have been playing at level 15,061 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Dominey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Vail changes to 0% and Adam Dominey changes to +3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Vail becomes 0% and for Adam Dominey becomes +1.8%.

Given Adam Dominey's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Tim Vail is 0% and for Adam Dominey is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Vail: 81%, Adam Dominey: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Vail: 63%, Adam Dominey: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Dominey: 6,096, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 21,696, level confidence: 63%.