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Harry Falconer v Miles Jenkins (Wed 02 Oct 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-4,11-13,17-15,11-9.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 20,780, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 22,106, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Miles Jenkins to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Harry Falconer.

Harry Falconer won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 24% better than Miles Jenkins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 23,866 and Miles Jenkins at a level of 19,248. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +14% and Miles Jenkins changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +3.6% and for Miles Jenkins becomes -3.1%.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Given Miles Jenkins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is +1.9% and for Miles Jenkins is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 83%, Miles Jenkins: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 73%, Miles Jenkins: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 21,231, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Miles Jenkins: 21,813, level confidence: 79%.