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Tom Ford v Richie Fallows (Tue 01 Oct 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 7-11,6-11.

Starting level for Tom Ford: 27,785, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 29,496, level confidence: 40%.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Tom Ford.

Richie Fallows won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 69% better than Tom Ford in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richie Fallows actually played at a level of 37,241 and Tom Ford at a level of 22,006. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to +18% and Tom Ford changes to -9.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes +4.1% and for Tom Ford becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Richie Fallows is +3.5% and for Tom Ford is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 63%, Tom Ford: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 50%, Tom Ford: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Ford: 27,257, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,604, level confidence: 50%.