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Harry Falconer v Emyr Evans (Tue 01 Oct 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 9-11,11-8,17-15.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 20,421, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 26,488, level confidence: 60%.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Harry Falconer.

Harry Falconer won 67% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 14% better than Emyr Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 24,877 and Emyr Evans at a level of 21,743. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +11% and Emyr Evans changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +3% and for Emyr Evans becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is +2.6% and for Emyr Evans is -2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 85%, Emyr Evans: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 70%, Emyr Evans: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 20,998, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 25,820, level confidence: 63%.