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Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Jakub Solnicky (Fri 04 Oct 2019)

Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 10-12,11-9,11-9,11-9.

Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 31,444, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jakub Solnicky: 21,805, level confidence: 60%.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Jakub Solnicky.

Jan Van Den Herrewegen won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played 20% better than Jakub Solnicky in this match.

As Jan Van Den Herrewegen has played below his allowed range at 27,538, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that Jan Van Den Herrewegen would normally have been playing at level 30,170 (based on typical behaviour), Jakub Solnicky played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to -3.2% and Jakub Solnicky changes to +6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes -1.3% and for Jakub Solnicky becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Czech Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 88%, Jakub Solnicky: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 80%, Jakub Solnicky: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 31,071, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Jakub Solnicky: 22,314, level confidence: 70%.