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Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Kristian Frost Olesen (Sun 06 Oct 2019)

Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 12-10,11-0,11-3.

Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 30,876, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kristian Frost Olesen: 30,603, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Kristian Frost Olesen.

Jan Van Den Herrewegen won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 162% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played 162% better than Kristian Frost Olesen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Van Den Herrewegen actually played at a level of 49,712 and Kristian Frost Olesen at a level of 19,007. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 61% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to +60% and Kristian Frost Olesen changes to -61%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes +10.5% and for Kristian Frost Olesen becomes -10.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Czech Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jan Van Den Herrewegen is limited to +5.7% and Kristian Frost Olesen is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 89%, Kristian Frost Olesen: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 55%, Kristian Frost Olesen: 55%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,691, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Kristian Frost Olesen: 29,197, level confidence: 55%.