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Harry Falconer v Nick Wall (Tue 08 Oct 2019)

Match won by Nick Wall. Result: 6-11,5-11,6-11.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 21,255, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Wall: 22,817, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Nick Wall to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Harry Falconer.

Nick Wall won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Wall played 94% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Wall actually played at a level of 30,683 and Harry Falconer at a level of 15,806. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Wall changes to +29% and Harry Falconer changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Wall becomes +6.2% and for Harry Falconer becomes -7%.

Given Nick Wall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 44% has been applied to his level change.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Nick Wall is +3.2% and for Harry Falconer is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Wall: 90%, Harry Falconer: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Wall: 67%, Harry Falconer: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 20,567, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Nick Wall: 23,612, level confidence: 67%.