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Oliver Rawlins v Lewis Anderson (Mon 07 Oct 2019)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 5-11,5-11,5-11.

Starting level for Oliver Rawlins: 14,989, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 15,648, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Oliver Rawlins.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 120% better than Oliver Rawlins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Anderson actually played at a level of 22,716 and Oliver Rawlins at a level of 10,325. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to +17% and Oliver Rawlins changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes +4.4% and for Oliver Rawlins becomes -9.5%.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Given Oliver Rawlins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is +2.5% and for Oliver Rawlins is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 89%, Oliver Rawlins: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 61%, Oliver Rawlins: 38%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Rawlins: 14,311, level confidence: 38%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,080, level confidence: 61%.