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Tim Vail v George Stanford (Tue 08 Oct 2019)

Match won by Tim Vail. Result: 11-8,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Tim Vail: 21,888, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for George Stanford: 9,495, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Tim Vail to win as he is currently playing 131% better than George Stanford.

Tim Vail won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Vail played 120% better than George Stanford in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tim Vail was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,680 and 21,888 without affecting his level.

In this case, Tim Vail played at level 20,889 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, George Stanford is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Vail: 79%, George Stanford: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Vail: 77%, George Stanford: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Vail: 21,855, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for George Stanford: 9,481, level confidence: 82%.