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Lewis Anderson v Tate Harms (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 12-10,8-11,5-11,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 15,305, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Tate Harms: 9,188, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Tate Harms.

Lewis Anderson won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 6% better than Tate Harms in this match.

As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 11,362, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 14,211 (based on typical behaviour), Tate Harms played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to -12% and Tate Harms changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -3.4% and for Tate Harms becomes +4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Head Danish GP Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 84%, Tate Harms: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 67%, Tate Harms: 69%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 15,089, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Tate Harms: 9,606, level confidence: 69%.