Lewis Anderson v Arón Astray (Sat 28 Sep 2019)
Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-7,11-9,10-12,11-9.
Starting level for
Lewis Anderson:
15,101, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Arón Astray:
10,035, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing
50% better than Arón Astray.
Lewis Anderson won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played
22% better than Arón Astray in this match.
As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 12,937, his level reduction is 5.6% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 14,363 (based on typical behaviour), Arón Astray played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 6.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to -4.5% and Arón Astray changes to +4.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -1.7% and for Arón Astray becomes +2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Head Danish GP Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 82%, Arón Astray: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 74%, Arón Astray: 85%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Lewis Anderson:
14,881, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Arón Astray:
10,257, level confidence: 85%.