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Lewis Anderson v Marcus Jepsen (Sat 28 Sep 2019)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 14,962, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marcus Jepsen: 6,783, level confidence: 56%.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 121% better than Marcus Jepsen.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 65% better than Marcus Jepsen in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lewis Anderson was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,803 and 14,962 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lewis Anderson played at level 11,929 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 12,714 (based on typical behaviour), Marcus Jepsen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to 0% and Marcus Jepsen changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes 0% and for Marcus Jepsen becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Head Danish GP Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 86%, Marcus Jepsen: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 74%, Marcus Jepsen: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 14,999, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Marcus Jepsen: 6,936, level confidence: 65%.