Lewis Anderson v Jared Carter (Sun 29 Sep 2019)
Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 18-16,11-7,8-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Lewis Anderson:
14,999, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jared Carter:
16,401, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Jared Carter to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Lewis Anderson.
Lewis Anderson won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played
21% better than Jared Carter in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Anderson actually played at a level of
17,223 and Jared Carter at a level of
14,283. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to +14% and Jared Carter changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes +3.8% and for Jared Carter becomes -3.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Head Danish GP Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 86%, Jared Carter: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 75%, Jared Carter: 76%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Lewis Anderson:
15,606, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Jared Carter:
15,869, level confidence: 76%.