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Anthony Rogal v David Lankester (Tue 08 Oct 2019)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 11-1,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 15,757, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Lankester: 4,667, level confidence: 42%.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 238% better than David Lankester.

Anthony Rogal won all of the games and 85% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 450% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 450% better than David Lankester in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Rogal actually played at a level of 20,111 and David Lankester at a level of 3,657. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to +8% and David Lankester changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes +2.4% and for David Lankester becomes -5%.

Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Anthony Rogal is +1.4% and for David Lankester is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 87%, David Lankester: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 68%, David Lankester: 51%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Rogal: 16,018, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for David Lankester: 4,511, level confidence: 51%.