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Owain Taylor v Harry Falconer (Wed 09 Oct 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 12-10,9-11,11-8,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Owain Taylor: 21,463, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 20,524, level confidence: 62%.
Owain Taylor to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Harry Falconer.

Harry Falconer won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 11% better than Owain Taylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 22,096 and Owain Taylor at a level of 19,936. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +7.5% and Owain Taylor changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +2.2% and for Owain Taylor becomes -2%.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.

Given Owain Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is +1.2% and for Owain Taylor is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 79%, Owain Taylor: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 73%, Owain Taylor: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Owain Taylor: 21,298, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 20,820, level confidence: 73%.