Scott Handley v Edward Davies (Tue 08 Oct 2019)
Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-1.
Starting level for
Scott Handley:
13,439, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Edward Davies:
2,872, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing
368% better than Edward Davies.
Scott Handley won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played
267% better than Edward Davies in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Scott Handley was taking it easy by anything up to 40%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,266 and 13,439 without affecting his level.
In this case, Scott Handley played at level 10,531 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Edward Davies is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 80%, Edward Davies: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 71%, Edward Davies: 77%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Scott Handley:
13,419, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Edward Davies:
2,868, level confidence: 77%.